Ukraine Strikes Hit Russian Fuel, Moscow Escalates Rocket Attacks

Ukraine’s drone campaign is squeezing Russia’s fuel supply while Moscow retaliates with one of its most aggressive waves of rocket and drone strikes this summer. The twin pressures are driving fuel prices higher and raising risks for energy markets and regional security.

Russian Petrol Supplies Under Pressure

A series of Ukrainian drone strikes has knocked out a significant share of Russia’s refining capacity, with facilities in Novoshakhtinsk, Saratov and other regions hit in recent weeks. The damage has disrupted about 10% of refining output, sending wholesale Euro 95 petrol up more than 50% since the start of the year. Retail fuel prices have also climbed as shortages spread to regions including Crimea and the Russian Far East.

To stabilize supply, Moscow has imposed a temporary ban on petrol exports. Analysts warn, however, that further attacks could deepen shortages and increase the fiscal burden on the Kremlin, which is already subsidizing domestic fuel to contain public backlash.

Rocket Strikes on Ukrainian Cities

Russia has responded with intensified aerial assaults. In its largest attack of August, Moscow launched more than 500 drones and dozens of missiles at targets across western Ukraine. The strikes caused civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure, including a U.S.-owned electronics plant in Mukachevo, which is not connected to military operations.

The escalation highlights both sides’ willingness to broaden the conflict’s scope — Kyiv by striking Russian energy assets and Moscow by targeting civilian and industrial centers. The cycle of attacks is eroding confidence in fragile peace efforts and increasing the risk of wider disruption.

Energy Market Implications

Global oil prices have firmed as traders weigh the potential for prolonged disruption in Russian refining output. Russia remains a critical supplier to global energy markets, and even partial outages ripple through fuel pricing and shipping networks. European importers, already diversifying away from Russian supplies, face renewed risks of volatility, while Asian buyers could see competition for alternative cargoes intensify.

Currency markets are also reacting. The ruble has remained under pressure, while safe-haven demand has boosted the dollar. Energy-sensitive equities — from airlines to logistics firms — are showing signs of strain as higher costs filter through balance sheets.

Tips for Traders

• Track Russia’s refining capacity and signs of further Ukrainian drone strikes.

• Watch crude benchmarks and petrol price spreads, particularly in Europe and Asia.

• Monitor Russian export policies, especially the duration of the fuel export ban.

• Look at equities in transportation, logistics and agriculture for cost-push risks.

• Keep an eye on FX flows as ruble weakness and safe-haven moves reshape positions.