Russian Oil Flows Near Full Capacity as Drone Strikes Hit Refineries and OPEC+ Decision Looms

Russia’s oil export network is running close to full capacity after a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes disabled several refineries, forcing Moscow to divert crude toward seaborne markets. The redirection has left key terminals near saturation just as traders await the next OPEC+ supply decision. Oil (Zorrox: BRENT.) hovered around $85 a barrel on Monday, steady after earlier gains, while U.S. prices held near $81. The market remains caught between the short-term supply disruption from Russia and the expectation of modest output adjustments from OPEC+ in the coming weeks.

Drone Strikes Push Russia’s Energy Network to the Limit

Ukraine’s sustained drone campaign has knocked out multiple Russian refineries, driving domestic fuel production to its lowest level in months. With processing capacity offline, Moscow has redirected roughly 3.6 million barrels per day of crude into exports — a figure near the maximum its western ports can handle.

Ports at Primorsk and Novorossiysk are operating at or close to capacity, while Ust-Luga and smaller outlets have little flexibility left. Analysts say any further refinery damage could leave Russia with no choice but to trim output or risk bottlenecks across its export network.

The attacks have underscored the growing vulnerability of Russia’s energy system. Strikes deep inside its territory have complicated repairs and exposed infrastructure gaps. Even if current export volumes hold, the lack of spare capacity means any additional damage could lead to sudden outages.

Moscow’s Balancing Act

Keeping export revenue flowing is both an economic and political priority for the Kremlin. Oil remains the country’s primary source of foreign income, vital for funding its war operations and offsetting sanctions pressure. To sustain cash flow, Russia has been using a mix of shadow fleet tankers and smaller ports, though those methods are expensive and less efficient.

The longer refinery repairs drag on, the harder it becomes for Moscow to balance domestic fuel supply with export commitments. Some analysts believe Russia may eventually be forced to curb crude production if export bottlenecks tighten further, especially as winter demand for refined fuel rises.

Oil Market Pauses Ahead of OPEC+

Global oil prices steadied after last week’s rally as traders awaited direction from OPEC+. Early signals suggest the group could announce a modest production increase in November — a cautious move reflecting concern about potential oversupply in a slowing demand environment.

That cautious stance mirrors broader uncertainty. Russian disruptions and geopolitical risks are lending support to prices, but sluggish consumption in Europe and Asia, combined with stubbornly high inventories, limits the upside. OPEC+ appears intent on maintaining balance — tight enough to prevent a price slide, but not enough to reignite inflation fears.

Tight Supply Meets Weak Demand

The current equilibrium is fragile. A single refinery outage or policy change could easily shift sentiment. A sustained disruption at Russia’s export terminals would likely drive prices higher, but a larger-than-expected OPEC+ output increase could erase those gains just as quickly.

At the same time, economic headwinds are building. Central banks have signaled that interest rates will stay elevated longer than expected, weighing on growth forecasts for 2026. That slower outlook caps demand and keeps traders cautious, even as supply risks persist.

Tips for Traders

• Watch oil (Zorrox: BRENT.) for volatility around OPEC+ statements and headlines on Russian export capacity.

• Track shipping congestion data and tanker flows for signs of stress in Russian terminals.

• Monitor refinery repair timelines — prolonged downtime could tighten fuel markets and lift product spreads.

• Consider short-term options strategies around OPEC+ meetings to capture event-driven price swings.

• Follow macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and growth revisions, which remain key to global oil demand.

• Stay alert to geopolitical risks or sanctions changes that could suddenly alter trade flows or price direction.